Oil Analysis: Oil price rise raises specter of global recession

Oil Analysis: Oil price rise raises specter of global recession LONDON (Reuters) - A jump in energy prices is jamming the slow-turning cogs of an economic recovery in the West, but that may be nothing compared to the economic shock an Israeli attack on Iran would cause. Oil rose to a 10-month high above $125 a barrel Friday, prompting responses from policymakers around the world including U.S. President Barack Obama, watching U.S. gasoline prices follow crude to push toward $4 a gallon in an election year. Europe may have more to fear as its fragile economic growth falters and Greece, Italy and Spain look for alternative sources to the crude they currently import from Iran, where an EU oil embargo, intended to make Iran abandon what the West fears are efforts to develop nuclear weapons, comes into force in June. In euro terms, Brent crude rose to an all-time high of 93.60 euros this week, topping its 2008 record. 'The West's determination to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is coming at a price - a price that might include a second global recession triggered by an oil shock,' said David Hufton from the oil brokerage PVM. In dollar terms, oil prices are still some $20 a barrel short of their 2008 record of $147. But the latest Reuters monthly survey will Monday show oil analysts revising up their predictions for Brent crude by $3 since the previous month. Such a change is big in a poll of over 30 analysts, and last happened at the peak of the Libyan war in May. Ian Taylor, head of the world's biggest oil trading house Vitol, told Reuters this week prices could spike as high as $150 a barrel if Iran's arch-enemy Israel launched a strike at its nuclear facilities - an option Israel has declined to rule out. 'I used to think this would never happen,' Taylor said, 'but everyone you speak to says the Israelis will have a go at striking at Iranian nuclear sites. 'The day that happens, you have to believe the Iranians throw a few mines in the Strait of Hormuz and, for a few hours at least or maybe more, I cannot see a scenario where prices would not be at that sort of level ($150).' The U.N. nuclear watchdog said Friday Iran had sharply stepped up its uranium enrichment, which Iran insists is solely for civilian purposes. Israel has warned that, by putting much of its nuclear program underground, Iran is approaching a 'zone of immunity,' but it has also said any decision to attack is 'very far off.' Wall Street bank Merrill Lynch said this week that oil prices could climb to $200 over the next five years. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> So far this year, dollar prices for Brent crude have risen by more than 15 percent, pushed up mainly by fears about Iran. The loss of supply from three small and mid-sized producers suffering internal turmoil - Syria, Yemen and South Sudan - has added to the supply worries. WEAK GROWTH, HIGH PRICES A stabilization of the U.S. economy may explain some of the rise in oil prices, but the global economy is growing far more slowly now than at this time last year, yet crude prices are just as high. World equities and oil have typically been closely correlated since 2008 because both were driven by global demand. However, as oil prices start to respond to supply problems, the correlation is evaporating, and the global economy is already paying a high price. Data published this week showed unexpectedly weak activity in Europe's most powerful economy, Germany, and in France, sparking fresh worries that the region could tip into recession. Few have forgotten that in 2008, within six months of hitting its all-time high, oil plunged as low as $35 a barrel with the onset of the global credit crisis. In the United States, demand for refined oil products is close to its lowest level in nearly 15 years, indicating that motorists are cutting back their mileage. 'The price spike is going to be a challenge for politicians in the West running for re-election,' said Olivier Jakob from the Petromatrix consultancy. He said developed countries would find it hard to justify a release of strategic oil stocks similar to what they did in 2011. Unlike a year ago, when Libyan oil exports were disrupted by a war, this year 'there is ... instead a voluntary restriction on buying from a specific country,' said Jakob. Other than a release of oil stocks, developed countries could resort to yet another round of monetary easing, to which emerging markets will respond with quantitative tightening, price controls and subsidies, said analysts from HSBC. 'In terms of fiscal health, it would seem that Asia is better placed than other regions to deal with an oil price shock,' HSBC said in a note last week.

Oil Lot of good setups

Oil

As market continues to consolidate near high, lot of new setups are emerging. EW, ANN, WAG, JAH, SBRA, GWR, FLS, and GEVA are few examples of these kind of setups.

If you see the top ranked 10% stocks by momentum , you will see lot of these kind of setups. 

Earn August 15th Penny Stock Winners, Losers, and Stock Scans

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Today's Winners and Losers

Today's Bottom Scan

Forex AAPL was story of the day

Forex

Market continues to act well. The underlying buying pressure is good. There was little bit of profit taking on AAPL. AAPL has rallied after missing earnings in anticipation of new products. Prior to the launch there is some nervousness and profit taking. AAPL being such a big component of Nasdaq 100, it had effect on that index.

Now all eyes are on Fed and that will be next big catalyst for the market.

On the ETF front one of the ETF worth looking at is UGAZ . It is trying to bounce back after a pullback. The natural gas futures were up 5% yesterday. If it gets going it might take out previous high near 40.

Forex BBDA Gearing For Third Leg Higher?

Forex

I have successfully called each of BBDA's rallies this year.  First the rally from $.0004 to over $.004, which I alerted my subscribers to before the stock moved, when the stock was virtually dormant and trading only $5,000 to $10,000 a day at most compared to the $500,000+ its has been seeing on this latest rally.  The second from $.0029 to $.0199.  Both ended up being very profitable.  Had you bought at $.0004 (there were millions upon millions of shares for sale when I alerted it at $.0004) and sold at the recent high of $.0199 you are looking at a possible $400 into $19,900 return.

Right now I think BBDA is gearing up for its next leg higher, a move that will take the stock over 100% higher from current levels.  The short term chart is showing a cup and handle formation which is bullish. Also note that any bouts of selling only sends the stock down temporarily.  The uptrend is not done yet.

BBDA's most recent news:


BeBevCo: E-Z Shops are Latest Chain to Jump onto the Relaxation Revolution with KOMA UNWIND
STATESVILLE, N.C., Sept. 6, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Bebida Beverage Company (OTC markets: BBDA) (BeBevCo), a developer, manufacturer and marketer of liquid relaxation products, announced today that E-Z Shop Convenience Stores will join the relaxation revolution by carrying Koma Unwind products in their 28 stores throughout eastern South Carolina. This is in aftermath of the roll-out of Koma Unwind at a major retailer in South Carolina that began in August.

'It is amazing how many new store chains and distributors are coming out of the woodwork following our announcement on 28 June, 2012. We have gained a huge amount of credibility in the beverage market in the last few weeks. Now, our European expansion is well underway and we expect that the sky is the limit. After all, in today's busy world, people everywhere need to relax and unwind as well as get a better night's sleep. It won't be long now before liquid relaxation products are everywhere; and, we are a market leader,' said Brian Weber, CEO of Bebida Beverage Company.

About BeBevCo

BeBevCo (Bebida Beverage Company) develops, manufactures and markets liquid relaxation products including KOMA Unwind 'Liquid Relaxation' (TM), KOMA Unwind Sugar-free 'Liquid Relaxation' (TM) and KOMA Unwind 'Liquid Relaxation' Shot(TM) as well as Potencia Energy, Potencia 'BLAST' energy shot, Relax 5 shots and Piranha Water.

Safe Harbor Statement

Except for historic information contained in this release, the statements in this news release are forward-looking statements that are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause a company's actual results in the future to differ materially from forecasted results. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, the company's ability to attract qualified management, raise sufficient capital to execute its business plan, and effectively compete against similar companies.

Signals Fitch cuts Italy, Spain, other euro zone ratings

Signals Fitch cuts Italy, Spain, other euro zone ratings RELATED QUOTES Symbol Price Change TRI 27.82 -0.10 Related Content People wait to enter a government job centre in Malaga, southern Spain, January 27, 2012. REUTERS/Jon Nazca People wait to enter a government job centre in Malaga, southern Spain, January 27, 2012. REUTERS/Jon Nazca NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fitch downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain on Friday, indicating there was a 1-in-2 chance of further cuts in the next two years. In a statement, the ratings agency said the affected countries were vulnerable in the near-term to monetary and financial shocks. 'Consequently, these sovereigns do not, in Fitch's view, accrue the full benefits of the euro's reserve currency status,' it said. Fitch cut Italy's rating to A-minus from A-plus; Spain to A from AA-minus; Belgium to AA from AA-plus; Slovenia to A from AA-minus and Cyprus to BBB-minus from BBB, leaving the small island nation just one notch above junk status. Ireland's rating of BBB-plus was affirmed. All of the ratings were given negative outlooks. Fitch said it had weighed up a worsening economic outlook in much of the euro zone against the European Central Bank's December move to flood the banking sector with cheap three-year money and austerity efforts by governments to curb their debts. 'Overall, today's rating actions balance the marked deterioration in the economic outlook with both the substantive policy initiatives at the national level to address macro-financial and fiscal imbalances, and the initial success of the ECB's three-year Long-Term Refinancing Operation in easing near-term sovereign and bank funding pressures,' Fitch said. Two weeks ago, Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro zone countries, stripping France and Austria of their coveted triple-A status but not EU paymaster Germany, and pushing struggling Portugal into junk territory. With nearly half a trillion euros of ECB liquidity coursing through the financial system, some of which has apparently gone into euro zone government bonds, and with hopes of a deal to write down a slab of Greece's mountainous debt, even that sweeping ratings action had little market impact. The euro briefly pared gains against the dollar after Fitch cut the five euro zone sovereigns but soon jumped to a session high of $1.3208, according to Reuters data, its highest since December 13. Italy is widely seen as the tipping point for the euro zone. If it slid towards default, the whole currency project would be threatened. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, a technocrat who has won plaudits for his economic reform drive, said he reacted to Fitch's downgrade of Italy with 'detached serenity.' 'They signal things that are not particularly new, for example, that Italy has a very high debt as a percentage of GDP and they signal that the way the euro zone is governed as a whole is not perfect and we knew that too,' he said during a live interview on Italian television. 'They also say things that give a positive view of what is being done in Italy because there is much appreciation for policies of this government and this parliament,' he said. Fitch said of Italy: 'A more severe rating action was forestalled by the strong commitment of the Italian government to reducing the budget deficit and to implementing structural reform as well as the significant easing of near-term financing risks as a result of the ECB's 3-year Longer-term Refinancing Operation.' (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos, Daniel Bases, Philip Pullela and Pam Niimi, writing by Mike Peacock, Editing by James Dalgleish)

Earn Markets holding gains

Earn

Market continue to hold recent gains. Any small dip is bought. A consolidation near recent high sets the market up for possible upside breakout.

Below the surface the earnings season has created lot of breakouts. Those stocks after small pullbacks are prime candidates for possible upside.

Some of the stocks setting up well are:

ew

wag

hsy

jah


Besides that lot of stocks are also having nice consolidation near high.